Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x82c1…4395 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate100%13W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 8% -5.4%
≤30d 13 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 8% -5.4%
≤90d 13 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 8% -5.4%
all 13 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 8% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 8% -5.4%
10% -14.4% 0% -14.4%
15% -22.7% 0% -22.7%
20% -30.3% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses13 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 93¢ 100¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.88 · official $26.75 (match) · 28 history records