Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82c8…da77 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$419 (+2%) realized +$644 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate69%55W / 25L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day3416.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$644
7 days+$644
14 days+$644
30 days+$644
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$583
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +26.3% +14.3% 69% 4% -7.9%
≤30d 80 +26.3% +14.3% 69% 4% -7.9%
≤90d 80 +26.3% +14.3% 69% 4% -7.9%
all 80 +26.3% +14.3% 69% 4% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3416.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 4% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here +3.3% 1% -16.7%
15% -6.6% 1% -24.7%
20% -15.8% 1% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
42.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.13 per $1 lost it wins $6.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$644
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses55 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage1d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day3416.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 37¢ 55¢ $145 $211 +$66 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 61¢ 46¢ $246 $185 −$61 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $297 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $251 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $699 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $422 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $619 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $692 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $278 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $685 −$8 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $515 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $692 +$57 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $594 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $182 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $167 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $307 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $374 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $424 +$35 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $298 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $189 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $205 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $158 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $253 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $191 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $277 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $162 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $218 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $180 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $228 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $439 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $154 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $203 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $295 −$8 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $259 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $194 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $362 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $307 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $280 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $231 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $535 +$40 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $337 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $199 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $412 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $451 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $191 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $229 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $35 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $36 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $35 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $16 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $23 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.47 · official $397.47 (match) · 3500 history records