Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82c8…104c crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day85.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$6
crypto 44% +$50
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+76.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +95.6% +76.9% 31% 31% +32.2%
≤30d 32 +95.6% +76.9% 31% 31% +32.2%
≤90d 32 +95.6% +76.9% 31% 31% +32.2%
all 32 +95.6% +76.9% 31% 31% +32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +76.9% 31% +32.2%
10% ← realistic here +60.0% 28% +19.5%
15% +44.5% 25% +8.0%
20% +30.4% 25% -2.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +96% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +181% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day85.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 47¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$3 +240%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$68 +2163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$15 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$4 +358%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$4 +364%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$2 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 47¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 30m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 47m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 54m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.39 · official $73.39 (match) · 98 history records