Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82c8…0ba9 other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-6%) realized −$58 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%42W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$16
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$32
crypto 24% −$11
sports 10% −$6
world 7% −$2
tech 1% −$1
politics 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 27 -12.6% -20.9% 63% 33% -15.9%
≤90d 64 -13.0% -21.3% 64% 42% -18.6%
all 66 -13.5% -21.7% 64% 42% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -18.6%
10% -29.2% 32% -26.4%
15% -36.1% 27% -33.5%
20% -42.3% 9% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses42 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)66 / 83
History coverage90d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 48¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Trump say "KAG" or "Keep America Great" in June? Yes 94¢ 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Tim Cook say "Amazing" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tim Cook say "Google" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8t Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Tim Cook say "Siri" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 03 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +48%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $118 +$17 +15%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $4 $0 +5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $10 +$1 +10%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $5 +$1 +18%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar May 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-10? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-10? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standing May 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $4 +$3 +67%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Borussia Dortmund place 2nd for the 2025-26 Bundesliga season? May 09 $5 $0 +3%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 04 $9 $0 +2%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $33 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $82 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 12d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 13d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 13d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $15 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 15d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 93¢ $8 16d
Will Tim Cook say "Google" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8t BUY No 92¢ $1 16d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 90¢ $2 17d
Will Tim Cook say "Amazing" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8 BUY Yes 72¢ $2 17d
Will Tim Cook say "Siri" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 19d
Will Trump say "KAG" or "Keep America Great" in June? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 19d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 19d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 19d
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA BUY No 74¢ $5 20d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL FlyQuest 83¢ $5 20d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 20d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $3 20d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 81¢ $3 20d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.26 · official $276.33 (match) · 194 history records