Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82ca…3135 sports 551 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (296 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$1,980 (+31%) realized +$1,970 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%426W / 482L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day296.3pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 42% +$41
sports 37% +$71
other 14% +$38
world 4% +$10
politics 2% −$6
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (296 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 681 +52.7% +38.2% 43% 31% -15.4%
≤30d 908 +44.0% +30.3% 47% 31% -12.0%
≤90d 908 +44.0% +30.3% 47% 31% -12.0%
all 908 +44.0% +30.3% 47% 31% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover296.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.3% 31% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here +17.8% 22% -20.4%
15% +6.4% 19% -28.1%
20% -4.0% 17% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$1,970
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses426 / 482
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions33
Markets (closed)908 / 551
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day296.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 908 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? No 65¢ 77¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 47¢ 76¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+62%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 74¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04? No 49¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+103%)
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? No 29¢ 56¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+95%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 70¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026? No 50¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? No 57¢ 75¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+32%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 57¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+33%)
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 85¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? No 41¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+144%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports make a roster change before July? No 24¢ 97¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+312%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? No 53¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 59¢ 61¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 60¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 63¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen FC Bayern Munchen 49¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? No 61¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision? Yes 72¢ 75¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 61¢ 84¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 467 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-Ma Jun 17 $1 $0 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +121%
FK Spartak Moskva vs. FK Rubin Kazan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +49%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -176%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on May 26? Jun 17 $1 $0 +39%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +194%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +1404%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 22? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +466%
Orlando City SC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -62%
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -92%
CA Rosario Central vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -135%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 11? Jun 17 $1 $0 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 21? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +259%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Will FC Argeș Pitești win on 2026-05-15? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +628%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm Jun 17 $0 +$1 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 22? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +304%
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +135%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe Academy vs Rising Gaming (BO3) - LJL Regular S Jun 17 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 28? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +164%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 168.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 11? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +474%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 4? Jun 17 $1 $0 +54%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +233%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +82%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +954%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Rwanda Jun 17 $0 +$1 +194%
Will Michael Chandler fight Conor McGregor next? Jun 17 $1 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 13? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 27? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +330%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +268%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 3? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 22? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +210%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -210%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $0 +$1 +281%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +130%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 167.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +326%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 17 $0 −$1 -170%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +269%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 28? Jun 17 $1 $0 -32%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 36m
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 37m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 41¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 66¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 96¢ $7 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 94¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 71¢ $5 3h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 59¢ $7 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 59¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $5 3h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 66¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 13¢ $1 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 18¢ $0 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 18¢ $1 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 22¢ $3 5h
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.79 · official $42.87 · 3500 history records