Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x82cd…9ccd crypto 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$463 (+21%) realized +$461 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%53W / 70L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$150
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$282
politics 22% +$83
world 20% +$87
other 17% −$37
crypto 8% −$25
finance 5% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +39.8% +26.5% 100% 100% +26.5%
≤30d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 57% +28.7%
≤90d 49 +18.1% +6.9% 43% 41% +13.6%
all 123 +7.4% -2.8% 43% 39% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 39% +12.2%
10% -12.1% 34% +1.5%
15% -20.6% 33% -8.3%
20% -28.4% 23% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$461
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses53 / 70
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)123 / 129
History coverage186d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $77 $85 +$8 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+6%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 $0 +40%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 +$38 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $99 +$93 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 10 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $2 −$1 -39%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $32 +$15 +48%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$45 +442%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 08 $138 +$66 +48%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 08 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 03 $5 +$11 +242%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $5 +$33 +669%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $14 −$1 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Apr 27 $10 +$5 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $5 +$23 +455%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 22 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $65 +$51 +79%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Apr 21 $28 −$2 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 08 $5 +$4 +81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 08 $10 +$10 +104%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 08 $30 +$41 +136%
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $32 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 6d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 6d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 7d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 10d
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL Yes $3 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $99 15d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 15d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 26d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 34d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 35d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $8 35d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 45d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Karmine Corp 21¢ $10 48d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 42¢ $51 48d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 100¢ $205 48d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $49 48d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Karmine Corp 67¢ $32 48d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $10 48d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 18¢ $10 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.87 · official $203.87 (match) · 309 history records