Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x82cf…3d55 sports 721 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,857 (+2%) realized +$4,791 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate75%533W / 182L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day36.1pace
Fees−$655est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$3,016
weather 36% +$840
other 15% −$1,416
politics 5% $0
crypto 2% −$80
finance 0% +$4
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +6.3% -3.9% 55% 32% -9.9%
≤30d 266 +3.0% -6.8% 72% 24% -8.1%
≤90d 715 +1.0% -8.6% 75% 21% -8.7%
all 715 +1.0% -8.6% 75% 21% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 21% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 17% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 14% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$57 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized+$4,791
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses533 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$655
Open positions6
Markets (closed)715 / 721
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$356
Trades / day36.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage REJECT 72¢ 100¢ $72 $100 +$28 (+39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $80 $99 +$18 (+23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $42 $71 +$28 (+66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $54 $62 +$7 (+13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $480 $0 -0%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 23 $97 −$37 -38%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $25 +$15 +61%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $52 +$1 +2%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $62 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $128 +$8 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 22 $138 −$69 -50%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $571 −$571 -100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $59 +$41 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $62 +$46 +74%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $327 +$13 +4%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $220 +$30 +14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $54 −$33 -60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $492 +$708 +144%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $380 +$268 +71%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $878 +$592 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5,120 −$938 -18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $740 −$199 -27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $191 +$9 +5%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $184 +$16 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $921 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $513 +$1 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $69 +$81 +117%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $700 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,516 −$2,120 -38%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,640 −$800 -49%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $787 +$3,146 +400%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $54 +$46 +85%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $160 −$16 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,405 +$93 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $227 −$227 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,300 +$20 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,759 +$41 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,280 +$1,320 +58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $320 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,050 +$50 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,148 −$80 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,100 +$50 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 49m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 50m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 50m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 50m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 51m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 52m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 53m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 53m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 54m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 54m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 54m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 56m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 56m
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $79 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $55 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $123 1h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL REJECT 76¢ $38 1h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL REJECT 76¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.15 · official $434.20 (match) · 3500 history records