Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
82 0x82cf…0998 sports 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 155d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$115,738 (+64%) realized +$113,276 · open +$2,462
Gross ROI / mkt +154% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +88% what you keep after slip
Net edge+88%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%157W / 70L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$778per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$298est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$10,287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$997
7 days+$2,893
14 days+$7,740
30 days+$21,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$61,015
other 19% +$11,683
world 16% +$11,014
politics 9% +$1,548
crypto 5% +$551
finance 3% +$3,126
tech 0% +$125
culture 0% +$4,492
economics 0% −$387
weather 0% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+129.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +316.3% +276.6% 89% 78% +5.1%
≤30d 36 +196.5% +168.3% 75% 67% +44.0%
≤90d 103 +172.5% +146.5% 72% 64% +26.1%
all 227 +153.9% +129.7% 69% 60% +29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +129.7% 60% +29.7%
10% +107.7% 56% +17.3%
15% ← realistic here +87.6% 48% +5.9%
20% +69.2% 39% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +154% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +145% → late +162% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$656 vs −$182 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.46 per $1 lost it wins $8.46
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$10,287
Realized+$113,276
Unrealized+$2,462
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses157 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$298
Open positions3
Markets (closed)227 / 231
History coverage156d ⚠
Avg bet$778
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? No 75¢ 100¢ $7,733 $10,257 +$2,525 (+33%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? Yes 42¢ 12¢ $89 $25 −$65 (-72%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Help Us LFO vs Can You Be My Enemy (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC North - Stage 1 Group Stage Help Us LFO 55¢ 95¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $9 +$25 +273%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? Jun 18 $9,092 +$653 +7%
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 17 $167 +$320 +192%
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi Jun 16 $204 +$71 +35%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) Jun 11 $21 −$16 -74%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $61 +$61 +100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 +$72 +7611%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $119 +$119 +100%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $7,926 +$1,588 +20%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $3,098 −$2,831 -91%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? Jun 10 $286 +$114 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $401 −$217 -54%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $0 +$4 +850%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $1,435 +$7,777 +542%
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Utah State Aggies Jun 03 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 01 $464 +$2,027 +437%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $74 −$74 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $48 +$93 +194%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 −$24 -67%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Group B May 31 $0 $0 +96%
World Championships: Switzerland/Norway vs. Canada/Finland May 30 $9,965 +$8,421 +84%
Dota 2: unknow vs BALU - Game 2 Winner May 30 $618 +$323 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $3 +$10 +400%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $0 +$3 +1105%
Will Nice vs. Saint-Etienne end in a draw? May 30 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $661 +$586 +89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 30 $481 +$1,457 +303%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $284 +$849 +299%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $769 +$705 +92%
Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: Draw at halftime? May 29 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 May 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 27 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $467 −$362 -78%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on May 22? May 21 $275 +$3 +1%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $517 −$450 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17? May 17 $13 +$46 +363%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17? May 17 $19 −$18 -95%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 15 $0 +$32 +16960%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $9 +$14 +162%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 14 $91 +$86 +95%
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 10000 packages during the o May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Ass" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experienc May 13 $21 +$8 +40%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? May 12 $95 +$364 +382%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 30 $726 −$702 -97%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 28 $0 +$1 +99900%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 28 $434 +$1,028 +237%
Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 27 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $1 +$6 +600%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 26 $308 +$902 +293%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $7,810 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa 12¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa 12¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa 12¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa 12¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa 12¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa 12¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa 12¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa $6 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa $5 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs SELL Ursa 10¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY Ursa $9 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY Ursa $0 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY Ursa $0 4h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,509 13h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 13h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 13h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 14h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $9,089 15h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 10¢ $1 17h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 10¢ $2 17h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 10¢ $25 17h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY No $2 17h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY No $0 17h
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? SELL No 95¢ $366 18h
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 36¢ $140 19h
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi SELL Barbie Boys 100¢ $275 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi BUY Barbie Boys 75¢ $188 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi BUY Barbie Boys 74¢ $4 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi BUY Barbie Boys 73¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,286.90 · official $10,286.90 (match) · 3500 history records