Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

82 0x82d0…54da sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$59 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$37

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$378per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$33est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-56.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-52.0%	-56.6%	33%	0%	-31.8%
≤30d	3	-52.0%	-56.6%	33%	0%	-31.8%
≤90d	3	-52.0%	-56.6%	33%	0%	-31.8%
all	3	-52.0%	-56.6%	33%	0%	-31.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.6%	0%	-31.8%
10%	-60.8%	0%	-38.3%
15%	-64.5%	0%	-44.2%
20%	-68.0%	0%	-49.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -52% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$48 vs −$215 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.11 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$363

Realized+$22

Unrealized+$37

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$33

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$378

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5	Over	61¢	68¢	$323	$363	+$40 (+12%)
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5	Over	61¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Maria vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5	Jun 27	$136	−$133	-98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys	Jun 27	$486	−$297	-61%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5	Jun 26	$939	+$48	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	61¢	$327	1m
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	61¢	$3	34m
Maria vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5	BUY Under	36¢	$136	1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys	SELL Tatjana Maria	11¢	$189	1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys	BUY Tatjana Maria	27¢	$486	2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	12¢	$54	16h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	67¢	$939	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.54 · official $362.54 (match) · 8 history records