Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
82 0x82d2…beea sports 358 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137,232 (+27%) realized +$137,232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%207W / 150L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$1,404per market
Trades / day144.6pace
Fees−$7,517est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$47,177
other 3% +$314
crypto 1% −$588
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +9.0% -1.4% 56% 53% +3.0%
≤30d 357 +8.8% -1.5% 58% 55% -1.0%
≤90d 357 +8.8% -1.5% 58% 55% -1.0%
all 357 +8.8% -1.5% 58% 55% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 55% -1.0%
10% -10.9% 52% -10.5%
15% ← realistic here -19.5% 48% -19.1%
20% -27.4% 43% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,665) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$952 vs −$1,001 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$137,232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses207 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$7,517
Open positions0
Markets (closed)357 / 358
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$1,404
Trades / day144.6
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 357 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $909 +$1,129 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $975 −$975 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $465 +$551 +118%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $722 −$722 -100%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $3,774 +$1,228 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,711 +$1,725 +64%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $872 +$992 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $736 +$837 +114%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $1,995 −$108 -5%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $1,242 +$111 +9%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $500 −$53 -11%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $1,725 −$1,725 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $844 +$733 +87%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,092 −$1,092 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1,178 +$379 +32%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,227 +$851 +69%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $941 −$941 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5,407 +$2,137 +40%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $93 +$79 +85%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,141 −$1,141 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $567 +$482 +85%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,752 −$2,728 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $2,677 +$2,593 +97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $279 +$270 +96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $902 +$2,493 +276%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $422 +$1,800 +426%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,950 +$3,050 +156%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4,620 +$2,380 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $95 +$155 +163%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $432 −$432 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,938 −$1,938 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5,655 −$3,287 -58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $707 −$707 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $298 −$298 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $523 −$523 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $975 +$1,522 +156%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $910 +$792 +87%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,086 −$116 -11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $958 +$1,339 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,006 +$1,334 +133%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $613 −$469 -76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,084 +$859 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,735 +$3,391 +91%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$12 +61%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,670 −$1,670 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $2,038 35m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 44¢ $440 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 44¢ $11 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 44¢ $136 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $322 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $339 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $627 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $1,016 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $465 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4,436 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $1,865 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,573 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,060 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1,650 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $13 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $26 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $51 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $4 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $3 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $9 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $49 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $30 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $3 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $31 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $42 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $4,650.00 · 3500 history records