Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x82d5…63eb other 125 markets active 3h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$20
politics 39% −$17
sports 6% $0
economics 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -4.2% -13.3% 5% 3% -9.8%
all 125 -1.6% -11.0% 9% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×7.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage115d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $252 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $250 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 11 $244 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $195 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $235 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $271 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $234 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $281 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $291 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $224 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $224 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $226 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $444 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $288 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 9h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 20h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 46h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 46h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 14d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 14d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 22d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $231 22d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $231 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $241 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $241 24d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $270 25d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $270 26d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $252 26d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $252 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $265 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $265 28d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $259 28d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $259 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records