Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x82d5…0614 weather 350 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$113 (+0%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%342W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$13
14 days+$26
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$109
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 204 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 346 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 346 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×274.72 per $1 lost it wins $274.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$986
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses342 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)346 / 350
History coverage48d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $705 $706 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $659 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $676 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $437 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $157 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $439 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $193 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $640 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $328 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $974 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $974 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $975 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $679 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $216 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 28m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 29m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $28 31m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $156 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $28 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $58 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $600 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $66 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $19 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $178 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $18 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $37 42h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $200 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.46 · official $986.46 (match) · 1317 history records