Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82d5…116d crypto 69 markets active 5d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$107 (-4%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%33W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$29
14 days−$15
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$143
crypto 47% +$14
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.3% -21.5% 67% 44% -30.1%
≤30d 37 -28.5% -35.3% 43% 35% -20.0%
≤90d 46 -23.9% -31.1% 41% 33% -25.7%
all 69 -15.5% -23.6% 48% 41% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 41% -14.2%
10% -30.9% 29% -22.4%
15% -37.6% 22% -29.9%
20% -43.7% 17% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses33 / 36
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage108d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $42 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $32 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $39 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1 $0 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1 +$1 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Was Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -46%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +19%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $17 +$1 +7%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+1.5) Apr 04 $328 −$23 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 31 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 31 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs CarritoSpain (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D Mar 29 $199 −$79 -40%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs TEAM ASCEND (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B Mar 28 $40 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs NOMERCY (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Gro Mar 28 $166 +$34 +21%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Vexa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Ame Mar 22 $38 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Players vs Keyd (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Am Mar 22 $40 −$3 -7%
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Kills? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 4 Winner Mar 19 $230 −$53 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 09 $20 −$9 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 77¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 76¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $11 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 72¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 47¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 86¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 22¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 24¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 43¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 35¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BIG 64¢ $53 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 46¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records