trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $6 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic | Jun 10 | $76 | +$12 | +16% |
| Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima | Jun 10 | $52 | +$12 | +23% |
| Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec | Jun 09 | $170 | +$31 | +19% |
| Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el | Jun 09 | $211 | +$32 | +15% |
| Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 | Jun 06 | $97 | −$89 | -91% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 06 | $52 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 04 | $16 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 03 | $39 | +$9 | +23% |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | May 27 | $38 | +$4 | +11% |
| Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o | May 27 | $50 | +$8 | +15% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | May 24 | $51 | −$9 | -18% |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | May 22 | $50 | +$12 | +24% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +18.2% | +6.9% | 100% | 100% | +6.0% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 77% | 69% | -6.9% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 77% | 69% | -6.9% |
| all | 13 | +4.4% | -5.5% | 77% | 69% | -6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.5% | 69% | -6.9% |
| 10% | -14.6% | 23% | -15.8% |
| 15% | -22.8% | 0% | -24.0% |
| 20% | -30.4% | 0% | -31.4% |