Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82dc…a079 crypto 70 markets active 6d ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%58W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$2
other 27% −$7
weather 8% $0
world 5% −$2
culture 3% $0
politics 2% −$2
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 24 -8.0% -16.8% 92% 0% -9.6%
all 70 -16.8% -24.7% 83% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -31.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -38.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -44.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses58 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage228d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? May 25 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on May 8? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 May 06 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? May 03 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 22? Apr 25 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19? Apr 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a Apr 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 23? Apr 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 23 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 21 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? Mar 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 12? Mar 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on March 13? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 5? Mar 12 $88 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 12? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on February 12? Feb 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on February 12? Feb 28 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Feb 28 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the February Meeti Feb 28 $71 $0 +0%
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Febr Feb 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on February 4 Feb 12 $74 $0 +0%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 03 $43 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 30? Feb 03 $45 +$2 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $21 $0 +2%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be greater than 9.5 Jan 30 $38 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of January 19 above $9.00? Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 16? Jan 21 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 January 5-11? Jan 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be -1°C on January 6? Jan 11 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 1? Jan 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on December 2 Jan 01 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on December 2 Dec 27 $88 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $57 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $27 6d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, BUY No 100¢ $84 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $84 24d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 27d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 33d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 40d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? BUY No 0¢ $2 42d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 44d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 BUY No 100¢ $86 45d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, BUY Yes 0¢ $2 45d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $88 56d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $88 60d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 63d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate a BUY No 100¢ $87 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $87 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $87 77d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $87 86d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $88 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $87 93d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $87 97d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on March 13? BUY No 0¢ $1 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $88 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY No 100¢ $88 107d
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $24 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records