Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82e0…d2e6
crypto · 256 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$281 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$281 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses76 / 179
Open positions1
Markets (closed)255 / 256
History coverage44d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 255 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$30
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Up 0¢ 60¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 29¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$4 -82%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$2 -49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 02 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 12 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12PM ET May 12 $30 −$22 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 12 $33 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 12 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 12 $8 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET May 12 $19 −$11 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 12 $9 +$6 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $24 −$4 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 38h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 38h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 39h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 39h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 39h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 39h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 39h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -41.2% -46.8% 35% 23% -42.8%
≤30d 38 -52.3% -56.9% 26% 18% -46.1%
≤90d 255 -39.0% -44.8% 30% 22% -29.1%
all 255 -39.0% -44.8% 30% 22% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.8% 22% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -50.1% 15% -35.9%
15% -54.9% 10% -42.1%
20% -59.3% 9% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.75 · official $5.96 (match) · 1218 history records