Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82e1…7f5d other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$1
world 32% −$2
politics 5% +$4
weather 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 27 +1.2% -8.5% 41% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.2% 4% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 4% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage476d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $120 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $35 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $109 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $18 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $34 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $9 −$1 -14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 04 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Raiders make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 28 $2 $0 -6%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $16 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 22 $8 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 20 $3 −$1 -19%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? Mar 20 $7 +$5 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $38 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $38 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 28h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $26 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 79¢ $8 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $35 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $27 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $35 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 75¢ $34 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $34 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records