Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82e2…ec75
crypto · 750 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$303 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,561 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$120
Realized+$1,561
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses398 / 355
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)753 / 750
History coverage32d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day90.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 753 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,261
7 days+$934
14 days+$1,918
30 days+$1,621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 53¢ 100¢ $40 $75 +$35 (+90%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 46¢ 52¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 2? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 52¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 12? Jun 14 $42 −$45 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on May 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 12? Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$31 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $243 +$151 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$35 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$37 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$44 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$32 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$36 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $160 +$167 +104%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $240 +$331 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$35 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$42 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$39 +95%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $2,784 +$1,141 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$40 -96%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $60 +$86 +144%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $40 +$34 +85%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $243 −$240 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$41 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$35 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$7 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$35 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$21 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $20 +$24 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$37 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$37 +90%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $10 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 69% −$230
sports 24% +$2,129
weather 5% −$126
other 3% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $38 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $41 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $41 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $41 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $41 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 16h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 68¢ $121 19h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 75¢ $121 19h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 73¢ $121 19h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 75¢ $121 19h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 75¢ $121 19h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 74¢ $121 19h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Robin Montgomery 72¢ $121 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -6.5% -15.4% 45% 45% -2.4%
≤30d 708 +0.5% -9.1% 54% 36% -5.2%
≤90d 753 +3.6% -6.3% 53% 36% -5.6%
all 753 +3.6% -6.3% 53% 36% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover90.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 36% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 31% -14.7%
15% -23.4% 29% -22.9%
20% -30.9% 28% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.33 · official $120.33 (match) · 3500 history records