Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82e4…9643
crypto · 1653 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$316 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$312 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$312
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses928 / 638
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1566 / 1653
History coverage62d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 1566 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$573
14 days+$490
30 days+$557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 65¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 70¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$152
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $0 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $0 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $22 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $40 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $38 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $14 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $61 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $9 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1022 +3.7% -6.2% 59% 59% -3.5%
≤30d 1161 +1.6% -8.1% 57% 57% -6.2%
≤90d 1566 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 58% -10.3%
all 1566 -1.4% -10.8% 59% 58% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 58% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 54% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 35% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 28% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.61 · official $7.61 (match) · 3500 history records