Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x82e7…2fcf other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$32 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate75%42W / 14L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$16
sports 15% −$6
crypto 13% +$3
world 7% +$2
tech 7% +$7
politics 5% +$5
economics 4% −$3
finance 3% +$8
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +1.6% -8.1% 82% 45% -5.5%
≤90d 36 +2.4% -7.3% 78% 28% -6.4%
all 56 +3.3% -6.5% 75% 27% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 27% -6.7%
10% -15.5% 14% -15.6%
15% -23.6% 5% -23.7%
20% -31.1% 2% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses42 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)56 / 75
History coverage129d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 88¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 44¢ 20¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-53%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 89¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 06 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $11 +$1 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $29 +$7 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 20 $11 +$3 +26%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 20 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 20 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 20 $7 +$2 +21%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 20 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 06 $8 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $35 +$3 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $18 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 06 $7 +$3 +36%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 06 $23 +$2 +7%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $4 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 24 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $28 $0 +2%
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 24 $36 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in March? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $18 +$5 +24%
Karoline Leavitt out by March 31? Apr 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $14 +$1 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 03 $65 +$23 +36%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 26 $29 +$1 +3%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 26 $30 +$2 +7%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 26 $13 +$2 +15%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 26 $31 +$4 +14%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will OKX be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $40 $0 -0%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $46 +$3 +6%
Will the SBC initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popu Feb 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 26 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 19 $24 $0 +2%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $6 $0 -2%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 18 $33 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Feb 13 $4 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $27 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $28 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $28 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $28 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $29 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $29 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $12 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $12 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $14 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 7d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 7d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $16 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $8 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $8 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $9 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.91 · official $72.75 · 301 history records