Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82e7…f552 weather 623 markets active 3d ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (575 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,176 (-23%) realized −$4,176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate37%295W / 508L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day575.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,639
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (575 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 703 -29.0% -35.8% 40% 10% -31.7%
≤30d 803 -31.5% -38.0% 37% 10% -33.9%
≤90d 803 -31.5% -38.0% 37% 10% -33.9%
all 803 -31.5% -38.0% 37% 10% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover575.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.0% 10% -33.9%
10% ← realistic here -43.9% 6% -40.2%
15% -49.3% 4% -46.0%
20% -54.3% 3% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses295 / 508
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)803 / 623
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day575.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 803 Trades
no open positions (295 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 10? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? Jun 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 7? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -102%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 7? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 8? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 9? Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 7? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 10? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 8? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 9? Jun 18 $22 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 8? Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 7? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 18 $136 −$136 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 8? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 7? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 9? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 7? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $92 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $226 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $136 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $108 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $165 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 93¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $491 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $71 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $69 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $69 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $353 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 48¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 62¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $29 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1,441 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 97¢ $121 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records