Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82e8…ffca sports 747 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,285 (-25%) realized −$18,374 · open +$89
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%312W / 423L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$342est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$17,434
14 days−$17,127
30 days−$17,693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$1,758
world 39% −$15,067
crypto 12% −$1,230
other 5% −$663
politics 0% −$134
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -47.5% -52.5% 33% 13% -96.8%
≤30d 111 -23.9% -31.1% 41% 36% -46.5%
≤90d 735 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 41% -29.7%
all 735 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 41% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 41% -29.7%
10% -33.0% 37% -36.4%
15% -39.5% 33% -42.6%
20% -45.4% 29% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$79 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized−$18,374
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses312 / 423
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$342
Open positions12
Markets (closed)735 / 747
History coverage84d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 735 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 97¢ $156 $245 +$89 (+57%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 66¢ 67¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $22 +$12 (+121%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $17 +$7 (+72%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 57¢ 89¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+55%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 12¢ $28 $2 −$26 (-93%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 39¢ 18¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$2 +8%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $4,200 −$4,175 -99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $8,231 −$8,096 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,000 −$988 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,000 −$987 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,201 −$1,177 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2,000 −$1,957 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $1,100 −$311 -28%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $449 −$449 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$14 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$98 +97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3,800 +$949 +25%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $134 −$134 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $101 +$58 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,600 +$845 +24%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $193 −$193 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 +$128 +126%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 30 $444 −$265 -60%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. New May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Casper Ruud vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 4.5 May 29 $20 +$51 +249%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $101 +$65 +65%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Te May 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pitt May 28 $101 +$74 +73%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 28 $101 +$48 +48%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Bo May 28 $101 +$63 +62%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs May 28 $101 −$101 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $101 +$68 +67%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Bo May 28 $101 +$81 +80%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs May 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Medjedovic May 27 $101 +$55 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $158 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $158 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 2d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $25 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $155 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $70 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $135 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No $12 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No $13 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No $23 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No $43 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $39 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $36 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $900 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $789 7d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 55¢ $115 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $348 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $84 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $700 8d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $101 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $102 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $100 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 12¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.61 · official $436.67 (match) · 2035 history records