Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82ea…259f crypto 38 markets active 5d ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$235 (-70%) realized −$235 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$219
crypto 29% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -57.9% -61.9% 33% 33% -71.1%
≤30d 38 -11.1% -19.5% 55% 53% -73.8%
≤90d 38 -11.1% -19.5% 55% 53% -73.8%
all 38 -11.1% -19.5% 55% 53% -73.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 53% -73.8%
10% -27.2% 42% -76.3%
15% -34.3% 26% -78.6%
20% -40.7% 21% -80.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage60d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $240 −$219 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records