Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82eb…4dd9 politics 41 markets active 2d ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$8,001 (-32%) realized −$8,001 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate68%28W / 13L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$618per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,699
7 days+$1,699
14 days+$1,699
30 days+$1,699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$10,791
other 30% −$7
crypto 11% +$2,737
politics 8% −$2
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
≤30d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
≤90d 6 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 33% +65.0%
all 41 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 7% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 7% -38.3%
10% -19.8% 5% -44.2%
15% -27.5% 5% -49.6%
20% -34.7% 5% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$982 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,001
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses28 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage611d
Avg bet$618
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,822 +$1,699 +93%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $103 −$100 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? May 05 $4 $0 +4%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $10 $0 -2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary ele Feb 17 $2 $0 -7%
Open Sud de France: Arthur Gea vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Feb 17 $10,600 −$10,600 -100%
Will Laura Dern win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zama launch a token in 2025? Jan 12 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 11? Jan 12 $1,038 +$1,038 +100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $16 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 23 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? Jul 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
2025 February hottest on record? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jose Oliva be appointed as the next Florida senator? Mar 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? Mar 11 $10 $0 +1%
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10? Jan 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 12 $5,685 −$6 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 09 $20 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Dec 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Maryland Presidential Election Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Georgia Presidential Election? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Oregon Presidential Election? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Arizona Presidential Election? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win New Mexico Presidential Electi Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win New Jersey Presidential Electi Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Virginia Presidential Election Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio Presidential Election? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Iowa Presidential Election? Nov 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Oct 12 $1,889 −$2 -0%
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? Oct 12 $1,891 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $1,893 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1,817 2d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 15¢ $103 36d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? SELL No 100¢ $1 43d
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL No 84¢ $4 43d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $10 43d
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 80¢ $4 61d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 85¢ $4 90d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $10 118d
Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary ele SELL Yes 25¢ $2 120d
Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 27¢ $2 120d
Open Sud de France: Arthur Gea vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard BUY Perricard 56¢ $10,600 134d
Ethereum Up or Down on January 11? BUY Up 50¢ $1,038 157d
Will Zama launch a token in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $14 184d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? BUY No 100¢ $1 204d
Will Laura Dern win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards BUY No 100¢ $1 214d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 241d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $16 297d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $15 297d
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? BUY Up 98¢ $5 337d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $5 340d
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $20 346d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 356d
2025 February hottest on record? BUY No 100¢ $15 463d
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 487d
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? SELL No 100¢ $5,679 520d
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY No 100¢ $5,685 520d
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 523d
Will Jose Oliva be appointed as the next Florida senator? BUY No 100¢ $5 523d
Will LeBron James win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $5 523d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records