Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

82 0x82ee…1588 other 5 markets active 6h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$6 (+4%) realized +$7 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-26.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-19.0%	-26.7%	50%	50%	-1.9%
≤30d	2	-19.0%	-26.7%	50%	50%	-1.9%
≤90d	2	-19.0%	-26.7%	50%	50%	-1.9%
all	2	-19.0%	-26.7%	50%	50%	-1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.7%	50%	-1.9%
10%	-33.7%	50%	-11.3%
15%	-40.1%	50%	-19.8%
20%	-46.0%	50%	-27.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$25 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.26 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$69

Realized+$7

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	26¢	24¢	$15	$14	−$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$51	+$31	+62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$25	−$25	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	26¢	$15	28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	49¢	$25	28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.61 · official $68.61 (match) · 6 history records