Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82f1…89c4 crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$750 (-13%) realized −$830 · open +$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$6
other 21% −$44
sports 18% −$817
world 11% $0
tech 8% +$161
politics 6% −$58
economics 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -6.1% -15.0% 3% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 40 -5.9% -14.9% 5% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 45 -4.0% -13.2% 11% 4% -14.8%
all 86 -14.3% -22.5% 36% 3% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 3% -22.7%
10% -29.9% 3% -30.1%
15% -36.7% 3% -36.9%
20% -42.9% 2% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 85% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$33 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$830
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage535d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 24¢ $40 $121 +$80 (+198%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 15 $12 −$4 -35%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -17%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 15 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -18%
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? Jun 15 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 15 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $9 −$2 -19%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $2 $0 -28%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -20%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Jun 15 $9 −$2 -21%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Sta Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 15 $16 $0 -1%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 15 $17 $0 -1%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Gro Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $140 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $132 +$168 +127%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 14 $177 +$223 +126%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Apr 23 $335 −$335 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $163 +$4 +2%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by February 28? Feb 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 39 and 41 million views on wee Feb 27 $38 −$5 -13%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 27 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 27 $90 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Kings Feb 13 $138 −$138 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? SELL No 41¢ $8 1h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $12 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 36¢ $7 1h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? SELL No 57¢ $11 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House SELL No 83¢ $16 1h
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 38¢ $7 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 6¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 45¢ $9 1h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 31¢ $6 1h
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? SELL No 35¢ $7 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $13 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 85¢ $17 1h
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 36¢ $7 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 47¢ $3 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 47¢ $3 1h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $3 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 87¢ $17 3h
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $15 3h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 8¢ $2 3h
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Sta SELL No 60¢ $0 3h
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Sta SELL No 60¢ $12 4h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 80¢ $4 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 80¢ $4 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 80¢ $12 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 47¢ $1 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 80¢ $12 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 47¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.75 · official $120.75 (match) · 438 history records