Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:57:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82f2…91ce weather 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$2
14 days+$9
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$56
world 27% −$16
weather 20% +$2
politics 6% +$1
finance 2% +$4
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -15.8% -23.8% 62% 6% -9.8%
≤30d 25 -9.7% -18.3% 68% 4% -11.0%
≤90d 25 -9.7% -18.3% 68% 4% -11.0%
all 25 -9.7% -18.3% 68% 4% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 4% -11.0%
10% -26.1% 4% -19.5%
15% -33.2% 4% -27.3%
20% -39.8% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)25 / 34
History coverage28d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? No 95¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+10%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 94¢ 99¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $17 +$11 +65%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $71 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $161 −$14 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 9? Jun 10 $74 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 08 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $63 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,305 −$16 -1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,014 −$65 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 95¢ $48 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? SELL Yes $2 12h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes $3 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $8 15h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 15h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 22h
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 22h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 29h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 42h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 60¢ $17 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $71 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $69 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $71 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 28¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $87 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 77¢ $57 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $74 5d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY Yes 96¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $85 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 94¢ $23 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 85¢ $2 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 85¢ $43 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6d
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar BUY No 99¢ $66 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.95 · official $348.95 (match) · 73 history records