Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x82f2…27d4 crypto 292 markets active 1h ago coverage 387d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,276 (+15%) realized +$5,276 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%196W / 96L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,530
7 days+$2,408
14 days+$3,079
30 days+$3,721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$4,254
crypto 24% −$86
other 5% +$829
politics 2% +$13
culture 1% +$191
economics 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.9% +13.0% 60% 60% +59.9%
≤30d 25 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 48% +15.6%
≤90d 166 +5.3% -4.7% 66% 54% +7.4%
all 292 +1.9% -7.8% 67% 52% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 52% +3.9%
10% -16.7% 41% -6.0%
15% -24.7% 31% -15.1%
20% -32.1% 23% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$69 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

387d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,276
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses196 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions0
Markets (closed)292 / 292
History coverage387d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 292 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,825 +$1,192 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $711 +$903 +127%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $393 +$521 +132%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $86 −$85 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $125 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4,593 +$672 +15%
Will England win? Jun 05 $19 +$4 +20%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $23 −$4 -17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 26 $833 +$109 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $654 −$650 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton May 25 $514 +$140 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $475 +$40 +8%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $279 +$221 +79%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $396 +$278 +70%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 24 $85 −$84 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $246 −$243 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $302 −$300 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $507 +$418 +82%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 24 $145 +$129 +89%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $154 −$10 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $164 −$10 -6%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $700 +$773 +110%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $92 +$100 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $104 +$96 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $507 +$418 +82%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $58 +$46 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $196 +$141 +72%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $830 +$551 +66%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $303 +$126 +42%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $152 +$173 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $304 +$261 +86%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 19 $465 +$326 +70%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $259 +$206 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $32 +$33 +101%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $73 +$121 +165%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 18 $34 +$39 +114%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $180 −$100 -55%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $42 +$36 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 17 $77 −$76 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $25 +$17 +67%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $83 +$23 +27%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 11 $96 −$95 -99%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 09 $56 −$55 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3,017 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1,320 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,322 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $505 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $306 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $914 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $292 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $292 28h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $86 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $102 30h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $125 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $5,264 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 71¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 82¢ $2 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $4,586 9d
Will England win? SELL Yes 72¢ $23 16d
Will England win? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 16d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $19 16d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $23 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $20 18d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 88¢ $833 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff BUY Alexander Bublik 78¢ $654 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $654 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $514 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $515 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel BUY Alex de Minaur 92¢ $475 27d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $499 27d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $396 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 643 history records