Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82f3…9f82 weather 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,334 (+12%) realized +$5,308 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%83W / 234L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day153.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,443
7 days+$3,174
14 days+$2,956
30 days+$3,943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,969
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +11.1% +0.5% 32% 25% +4.3%
≤30d 317 -29.7% -36.4% 26% 20% -2.2%
≤90d 317 -29.7% -36.4% 26% 20% -2.2%
all 317 -29.7% -36.4% 26% 20% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.4% 20% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -42.5% 14% -11.6%
15% -48.1% 10% -20.1%
20% -53.2% 9% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -48% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$20 · ×5.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1,555
Realized+$5,308
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses83 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)317 / 318
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$136
Trades / day153.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $1,529 $1,555 +$26 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $142 −$121 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $520 +$136 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $14 −$7 -52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $1,473 +$106 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $102 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $8 −$6 -84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $44 −$40 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 16 $7 −$4 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$14 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $27 −$25 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $81 −$20 -24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $1,047 +$51 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $226 −$172 -76%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $134 −$40 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $42 −$21 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $245 +$313 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $207 +$829 +401%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $32 +$476 +1464%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $54 −$14 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$12 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $47 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$867 +5944%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $154 −$33 -22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $24 −$23 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $331 −$292 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 15 $16 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $162 +$350 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $348 +$53 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$116 +486%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $119 +$70 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $278 −$34 -12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 14 $6 −$5 -76%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$4 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 14 $14 −$13 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $98 −$97 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $328 +$104 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $12 −$11 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $413 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $224 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $234 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $427 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 87¢ $98 21h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 61¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 51¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 79¢ $104 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $117 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 78¢ $25 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 78¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $37 22h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 74¢ $70 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 79¢ $61 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 72¢ $113 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 68¢ $46 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $27 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $16 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $60 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $517 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,555.04 · official $1,550.33 (match) · 3500 history records