Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82f8…ada8 crypto 42 markets active 4h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$2
sports 29% −$1
other 18% −$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -6.1% -15.0% 51% 43% -9.9%
≤30d 35 -6.1% -15.0% 51% 43% -9.9%
≤90d 35 -6.1% -15.0% 51% 43% -9.9%
all 35 -6.1% -15.0% 51% 43% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 43% -9.9%
10% -23.1% 37% -18.5%
15% -30.6% 34% -26.4%
20% -37.4% 26% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 42
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$2 +226%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +158%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 27¢ $1 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Ur BUY 7¢ $2 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 29¢ $1 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 31¢ $1 32h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on BUY 7¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 18¢ $1 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners AND United States vs. Au BUY 11¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 5d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records