Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82fb…bed6 other 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$333 (-5%) realized −$333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%1W / 372L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$90
14 days−$152
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$315
politics 11% −$41
world 9% −$25
sports 7% −$19
tech 6% −$33
crypto 1% −$3
finance 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -5.2% -14.2% 1% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 302 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -15.2%
≤90d 373 -8.0% -16.8% 0% 0% -15.2%
all 373 -8.0% -16.8% 0% 0% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 0% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 0% -23.3%
15% -32.0% 0% -30.7%
20% -38.7% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses1 / 372
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)373 / 373
History coverage44d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 373 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $33 −$1 -4%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 24 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 24 $33 −$1 -3%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 24 $83 −$4 -5%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 24 $94 −$1 -1%
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh Jun 23 $0 $0 -5%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jun 23 $22 −$3 -16%
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 23 $113 −$3 -3%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 23 $12 −$4 -30%
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 23 $18 −$3 -18%
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 23 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $82 −$1 -2%
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 23 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $12 $0 -4%
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title? Jun 23 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Jun 23 $84 −$3 -4%
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Rep Jun 23 $21 −$2 -12%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 23 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $45 −$1 -2%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 23 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Jun 23 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title? Jun 23 $39 −$1 -4%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 23 $93 −$4 -4%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 22 $73 −$3 -4%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 22 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 22 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 22 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 22 $27 $0 -2%
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $48 −$4 -9%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 22 $22 $0 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $35 $0 -1%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 22 $37 −$1 -2%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 22 $7 $0 -2%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 22 $1 $0 -2%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 22 $41 $0 -1%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 21 $38 $0 -1%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $108 −$4 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 21 $33 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 58¢ $29 39m
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 59¢ $30 39m
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $22 47m
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $22 47m
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 76¢ $38 1h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 77¢ $38 1h
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $3 2h
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? SELL No 73¢ $36 3h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 79¢ $40 3h
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? SELL Yes 95¢ $47 7h
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? BUY Yes 95¢ $47 7h
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh SELL Yes 5¢ $0 8h
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8h
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 SELL Yes 59¢ $29 9h
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY Yes 60¢ $30 9h
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 11h
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 11h
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL No 76¢ $11 13h
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 77¢ $11 13h
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? SELL No 47¢ $19 14h
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY No 48¢ $20 14h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 18¢ $9 18h
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 25¢ $12 18h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 29¢ $14 18h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 35¢ $18 18h
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $27 18h
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1557 history records