Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82fd…4533 sports 428 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%210W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$163
14 days+$117
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$510
crypto 22% −$208
other 9% −$98
politics 2% −$118
world 2% −$42
finance 0% −$31
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -13.5% -21.8% 40% 34% +2.3%
≤30d 83 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 40% -6.2%
≤90d 341 -9.3% -18.0% 45% 41% -10.1%
all 428 -6.0% -14.9% 49% 41% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 41% -9.5%
10% -23.1% 36% -18.1%
15% -30.5% 31% -26.0%
20% -37.3% 25% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$22 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses210 / 218
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions0
Markets (closed)428 / 428
History coverage228d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 428 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $65 +$19 +30%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $72 +$60 +83%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $16 +$26 +158%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $50 +$31 +62%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 −$1 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $64 −$31 -49%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$123 +124%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$11 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $122 +$94 +77%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$37 -69%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 −$30 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$6 +41%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $22 +$23 +103%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$27 -79%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $31 +$28 +91%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $4 $0 -14%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$20 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$27 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $121 +$185 +153%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $26 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$11 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$9 +146%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $80 −$74 -93%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $84 −$4 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $47 −$2 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $33 −$26 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $84 +$28 +33%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $13 +$12 +88%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $62 +$12 +19%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $71 −$9 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $103 −$24 -23%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $13 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner SELL Sebastian Ofner 75¢ $84 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 57¢ $65 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 49¢ $30 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $132 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $72 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 95¢ $42 15h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $16 16h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 73¢ $80 22h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $50 23h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 53¢ $1 27h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 52¢ $61 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 14¢ $7 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 15¢ $8 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 11¢ $6 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 11¢ $6 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 0¢ $1 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 0¢ $1 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 2¢ $4 32h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 4¢ $8 33h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 3¢ $19 33h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 3¢ $6 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 5¢ $10 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 5¢ $0 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 4¢ $8 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 6¢ $12 34h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 9¢ $2 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 8¢ $3 34h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 10¢ $1 35h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 10¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1102 history records