Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x82ff…18ac other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$369 (+4%) realized +$464 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%75W / 87L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$386
7 days+$6
14 days+$9
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$1,009
sports 46% −$627
crypto 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.8% -15.7% 44% 44% -9.2%
≤30d 41 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 34% -6.6%
≤90d 143 -0.0% -9.5% 45% 44% -5.4%
all 162 +1.3% -8.3% 46% 46% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 46% -5.0%
10% -17.1% 45% -14.1%
15% -25.1% 45% -22.4%
20% -32.4% 43% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$49 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$464
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses75 / 87
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage106d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $100 $14 −$86 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$74 +145%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$35 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$96 +188%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$30 -59%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$40 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $91 +$64 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$37 -72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$22 -44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $31 −$27 -88%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $101 +$60 +59%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $101 −$29 -29%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $154 −$154 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 31 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $154 +$916 +596%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $30 −$30 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 22 $51 +$131 +257%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 10 $102 +$86 +84%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs RRQ Hoshi (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regu May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $30 −$19 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $147 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $21 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 34¢ $51 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $91 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $155 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $91 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $30 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 12¢ $14 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $51 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 34¢ $28 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.81 · official $54.81 (match) · 340 history records