Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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83 0x8301…3bdc crypto 1993 markets active 15h ago coverage 102d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,013 (+201%) realized +$3,852 · open +$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%155W / 2009L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$319
other 26% +$58
sports 3% −$8
politics 2% −$41
tech 2% −$31
weather 1% +$24
finance 1% −$17
culture 0% −$10
world 0% −$9
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-75.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 470 -56.0% -60.2% 21% 20% +8.3%
≤30d 557 -42.1% -47.6% 25% 22% +7.2%
≤90d 557 -42.1% -47.6% 25% 22% +7.2%
all 2164 -72.4% -75.1% 7% 7% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -75.1% 7% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -77.4% 6% -35.3%
15% -79.6% 6% -41.6%
20% -81.6% 6% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -92% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×12.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$3,852
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses155 / 2009
Open positions118
Markets (closed)2164 / 1993
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 118 History 2164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? Yes 1¢ 50¢ $0 $25 +$25 (+4940%)
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? Yes 1¢ 45¢ $0 $23 +$22 (+4435%)
Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Charles Oliveira next? Yes 1¢ 39¢ $0 $20 +$19 (+3800%)
Will Rachel Creemers be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? Yes 1¢ 33¢ $0 $17 +$16 (+3225%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 32¢ $0 $16 +$16 (+3130%)
Will Justin Gaethje fight Charles Oliveira next? Yes 1¢ 32¢ $0 $15 +$14 (+3070%)
Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 1¢ 28¢ $0 $14 +$14 (+2739%)
Will Alexandre Pantoja be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 20¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+1910%)
Will Mateusz Gamrot fight Charles Oliveira next? Yes 1¢ 19¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+1770%)
Will Paddy Pimblett fight Charles Oliveira next? Yes 1¢ 17¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+1560%)
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 1¢ 14¢ $0 $7 +$6 (+1300%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $0 $6 +$5 (+1040%)
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+415%)
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+395%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for Colorado Rapids next? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+375%)
Will Dricus Du Plessis be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+329%)
Will Jack Della Maddalena be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+305%)
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+385%)
Will George Pickens play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 33¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+3200%)
Will Tyler, The Creator be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+360%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+210%)
Will Serghei Spivac be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+365%)
Will Jailton Almeida be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+350%)
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+140%)
Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+185%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 382 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - January 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on January Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 26 be between 2,40 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $410-$420 on the final day of trading o Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 on February 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 4 be between 1,50 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the State of the Union begin between 9:15PM and 9:30PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on January 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Big Bash League: Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers (Game 1) - Toss Match Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Adam Sandler attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel join the Board of Peace? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 24, 9PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Great Britain win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 31, 11PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Player 194 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 25 be between 1,80 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tucker Carlson say "Border" or "Immigration" 5+ times at AmericaF Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $860 end of February? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on January 23? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $110? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the median home value in Chicago be between $305,000 and $310,000 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 9PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 17, 9PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on December 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 22? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on January 1 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 70°F or higher on January 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 19? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hanne Desmet (BEL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: S Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Naomi Urness (CAN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's a Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down on February 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 27h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 46h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.81 · official $206.00 · 3500 history records