Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8302…8b44 crypto 457 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5,025 (-12%) realized −$7,259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%199W / 258L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,309
7 days−$2,148
14 days−$5,420
30 days−$5,733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$4,256
weather 20% −$2,896
world 0% −$50
other 0% −$54
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -21.9% -29.3% 41% 41% -23.5%
≤30d 392 -14.2% -22.4% 44% 42% -23.6%
≤90d 457 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 41% -25.3%
all 457 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 41% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 41% -25.3%
10% -30.9% 38% -32.4%
15% -37.6% 35% -39.0%
20% -43.7% 28% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$88 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses199 / 258
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)457 / 457
History coverage60d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $835 −$800 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $213 +$235 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$73 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $123 +$69 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$63 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $105 +$271 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $169 −$160 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $416 −$416 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$201 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $207 +$168 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $81 +$42 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $421 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $309 +$210 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $627 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $732 −$700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $315 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $206 +$145 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $308 +$167 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $205 +$102 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $523 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $310 +$245 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $485 −$466 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $462 −$437 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $625 +$1,701 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $208 +$235 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $205 +$125 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $260 +$397 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $208 +$291 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $233 +$203 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $448 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $166 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1230 history records