Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x8304…4e7b other 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$199 · open −$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%75W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days−$61
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$165
crypto 35% +$25
tech 17% +$37
politics 3% +$9
sports 1% −$31
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 39 -0.7% -10.2% 97% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 76 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$83 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses75 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)76 / 82
History coverage106d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $266 $267 +$0 (+0%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 97¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 53¢ $91 $49 −$42 (-46%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 53¢ $90 $48 −$42 (-46%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 53¢ $90 $48 −$42 (-46%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 99¢ 52¢ $68 $35 −$33 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $7.50? Jun 18 $150 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $20? Jun 18 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading Jun 18 $36 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $138 +$1 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $135 −$83 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $176 +$3 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 10? Jun 10 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 9? Jun 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $233 +$5 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 6? Jun 06 $136 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.75 Week of June 1 Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on June 3? Jun 03 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 3? Jun 03 $208 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 2? Jun 02 $245 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $169 +$11 +6%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on June 1? Jun 01 $161 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 30 $731 +$7 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $416 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $7.00? May 22 $209 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $725 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $722 +$3 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 16 $715 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $718 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 11? May 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 11? May 11 $415 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 11? May 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on May 11? May 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $498 +$7 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of May 4 2026? May 08 $203 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 April 27-May 3? May 04 $704 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $40-$50 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 99¢ $63 2h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 98¢ $27 2h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $90 2h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $66 2h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $266 2h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $107 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $7.50? BUY No 99¢ $150 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 98¢ $50 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $20? BUY Yes 99¢ $103 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 7d
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $52 7d
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 8d
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 8d
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $195 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $138 11d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 12d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $176 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $300 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.46 · official $507.46 (match) · 175 history records