Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8304…f086 other 1162 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 218d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,331 (-3%) realized −$1,489 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate83%908W / 192L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$6,588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 219d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$297
world 26% +$1,232
politics 11% +$378
crypto 9% +$288
tech 9% +$271
finance 5% +$157
culture 4% +$406
sports 3% −$31
economics 3% +$85
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -70.6% -73.4% 22% 8% -54.9%
≤30d 161 -41.9% -47.5% 50% 16% -32.4%
≤90d 211 -33.0% -39.4% 58% 18% -27.2%
all 1100 +8.0% -2.3% 83% 26% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 26% -7.2%
10% -11.6% 15% -16.1%
15% -20.2% 10% -24.2%
20% -28.0% 8% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$26 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$6,588
Realized−$1,489
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses908 / 192
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions124
Markets (closed)1100 / 1162
History coverage219d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 124 History 1100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 66¢ 85¢ $310 $400 +$90 (+29%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 90¢ 93¢ $269 $279 +$10 (+4%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 87¢ 81¢ $260 $244 −$16 (-6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $220 $234 +$14 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $226 $226 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $192 $208 +$16 (+8%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 74¢ 85¢ $165 $189 +$23 (+14%)
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $161 $176 +$15 (+9%)
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? No 76¢ 87¢ $145 $165 +$20 (+14%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $128 $131 +$3 (+2%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $116 $119 +$3 (+3%)
Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 86¢ 91¢ $109 $116 +$7 (+6%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 86¢ 77¢ $120 $108 −$12 (-10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $104 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31? No 87¢ 93¢ $96 $103 +$7 (+7%)
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? No 82¢ 88¢ $94 $101 +$8 (+8%)
Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 64¢ 64¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $93 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $85 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? No 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $85 $89 +$4 (+5%)
Greek snap election scheduled in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fastenal (FAST) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" in November? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Casa Pia AC end in a draw? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 25 $27 −$27 -99%
Will AC Milan vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30? Jun 25 $52 −$125 -239%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say “Maduro” this week? (November 10 - 16) Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Gumayusi (Lee Min-hyeong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Lege Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Russia enter Novopavlivka by November 30? Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election bet Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi PM events on November 18? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 4? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Shopify (SHOP) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Saudi PM event Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by October 31? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Blaublitz Akita vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Saudi PM events on November 18? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2025-11-15? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "Walmart" this week? (November 17 – 23) Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw? Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will NVIDIA say "Arizona" during earnings call? Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 25 $57 −$56 -98%
North Korea missile launch by November 15? Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Panthers vs. Packers Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on Nove Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 65°F or higher on Oct Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parli Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on No Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "India" during Saudi PM events on November 18? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ukraine recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by October 31? Jun 25 $95 −$89 -94%
Wizards vs. Mavericks Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2025-11-15? Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30? Jun 25 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 17? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Russia vs. Peru end in a draw? Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $36 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 92¢ $18 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $18 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $74 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $38 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Rivian announce bankruptcy before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $8 1h
Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $92 1h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 88¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $14 1h
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $58 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? BUY Yes 99¢ $69 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY No 80¢ $8 2h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $15 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 79¢ $32 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $31 2h
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $41 2h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $139 2h
Will American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? SELL No 97¢ $97 2h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $15 2h
RFK Jr. Out by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $12 2h
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? BUY No 66¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,587.96 · official $6,598.00 (match) · 3500 history records