Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8305…d3d1 crypto 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$875 (-6%) realized −$875 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate67%140W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$65
14 days+$38
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$896
tech 0% −$43
world 0% −$40
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 25% +0.3%
≤30d 73 -8.5% -17.3% 70% 33% -13.5%
≤90d 208 -10.4% -19.0% 67% 34% -15.9%
all 208 -10.4% -19.0% 67% 34% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 34% -15.9%
10% -26.7% 24% -24.0%
15% -33.8% 17% -31.3%
20% -40.3% 12% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$35 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$875
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses140 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage42d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $151 +$9 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $150 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $153 +$47 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $151 +$8 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $87 +$36 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $65 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $125 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$24 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$40 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$8 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$7 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $81 +$17 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$11 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$18 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$4 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$11 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $25 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $153 −$153 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $151 +$13 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $150 +$5 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $227 +$31 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $151 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $153 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $151 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 762 history records