Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8307…20ce crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-1%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate46%77W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day157.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$39
14 days−$91
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +0.4% -9.1% 56% 24% -11.0%
≤30d 166 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 17% -11.7%
≤90d 166 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 17% -11.7%
all 166 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 17% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 17% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 5% -20.2%
15% -27.1% 2% -27.9%
20% -34.2% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses77 / 89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage21d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day157.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $73 −$11 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$19 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $62 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $84 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $44 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $106 −$15 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $61 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $74 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $43 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $78 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $88 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $58 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $83 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $88 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $88 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $28 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$6 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $88 −$12 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $32 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $70 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $48 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $18 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records