Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x830b…32fd crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,180 (+9%) realized +$693 · open +$487
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%51W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,237
7 days+$1,181
14 days+$1,181
30 days+$1,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$2,010
other 12% −$440
world 5% +$97
crypto 4% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 47% -0.6%
≤30d 38 -1.2% -10.6% 47% 47% -0.6%
≤90d 99 -14.3% -22.4% 52% 45% -1.6%
all 99 -14.3% -22.4% 52% 45% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 45% -1.6%
10% -29.8% 34% -11.0%
15% -36.6% 27% -19.6%
20% -42.8% 23% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$93 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,586
Realized+$693
Unrealized+$487
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses51 / 48
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage42d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 100¢ $329 $782 +$453 (+138%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $489 $453 −$37 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 40¢ $282 $352 +$70 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $325 +$386 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $376 +$351 +93%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 −$96 -84%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $344 +$376 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $455 +$295 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $433 +$232 +54%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $433 +$317 +73%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 −$1 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $638 +$97 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $228 +$492 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $396 +$279 +70%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $711 +$237 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $329 +$319 +97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $284 +$128 +45%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$108 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $383 −$350 -91%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $410 −$331 -81%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $127 −$108 -84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $105 −$95 -90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $477 +$257 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $228 +$492 +216%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $360 −$360 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $322 +$326 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $390 +$285 +73%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $181 −$177 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $396 −$392 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $450 −$293 -65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $811 −$595 -73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $253 −$206 -82%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $159 −$123 -77%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $253 +$227 +90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $433 −$427 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $426 +$324 +76%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 10 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 09 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 09 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 09 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 09 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 09 $9 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $334 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $287 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes $154 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $18 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $114 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $325 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $376 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $25 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $344 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 89¢ $665 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $433 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $455 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $433 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 40¢ $12 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $4 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $4 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $4 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 31h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $273 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $270 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $365 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $228 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $396 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $684 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $27 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $111 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,586.36 · official $1,586.36 (match) · 214 history records