Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
83 0x830b…a55b world 69 markets active 22h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$622 (+0%) realized +$770 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate89%51W / 6L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,863per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$61
14 days−$33
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$225
crypto 31% +$1,068
other 10% −$651
economics 4% +$90
tech 0% −$70
weather 0% +$2
sports 0% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.0% -30.3% 75% 0% -21.1%
≤30d 10 -6.3% -15.2% 90% 10% -7.9%
≤90d 15 -3.1% -12.3% 87% 7% -7.1%
all 57 -4.6% -13.7% 89% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 5% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 2% -17.7%
15% -29.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$2,924) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$289 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$2,624
Realized+$770
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses51 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)57 / 69
History coverage234d
Avg bet$1,863
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 92¢ 86¢ $1,400 $1,306 −$94 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $400 $433 +$33 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $70 $24 −$46 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? Jun 16 $204 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$2 +2%
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2,000 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $657 +$22 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $2,643 +$14 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 28 $5,146 +$64 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 28 $2,568 +$94 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 21 $531 +$105 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 06 $2,412 +$79 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 20 $2,400 +$24 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 06 $2,231 +$169 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 25 $4,171 +$245 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 19 $2,185 −$14 -1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 28 $68 −$68 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $905 −$836 -92%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 28 $2,785 +$119 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 15 $2,782 +$3 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 15 $2,768 +$14 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 13 $2,757 +$11 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 12 $2,741 +$17 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 11 $2,730 +$11 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $2,683 +$46 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 09 $2,667 +$16 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $2,657 +$11 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $2,631 +$26 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $2,623 +$8 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 03 $2,618 +$5 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 02 $2,605 +$13 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $2,474 +$130 +5%
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31? Jan 31 $3,205 −$730 -23%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jan 30 $3,189 +$15 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026? Jan 29 $3,165 +$25 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $3,149 +$16 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $16 −$16 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 28 $3,140 +$25 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $3,111 +$28 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 26 $3,074 +$37 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 25 $3,068 +$6 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $2,967 +$101 +3%
Trove FDV above $60M one day after launch? Jan 21 $966 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $2,941 +$24 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 18 $2,927 +$15 +0%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jan 17 $2,924 +$3 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $2,778 +$146 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $660 +$151 +23%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 14 $1,242 +$108 +9%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 13 $1,225 +$51 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 12 $1,225 +$17 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 21h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $97 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 4d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $72 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 5d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $101 5d
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? BUY Yes 95¢ $70 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $30 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $70 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $102 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $102 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 92¢ $1,408 5d
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $102 5d
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $102 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $410 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 97¢ $657 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $2,000 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2,643 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $2,643 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $2,661 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $2,661 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $2,568 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 98¢ $2,568 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $75 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 94¢ $2,410 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,624.43 · official $2,624.69 (match) · 173 history records