Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x830d…c2d4 sports 292 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%128W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$59
14 days+$75
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 37% -4.9%
≤30d 267 -9.2% -17.8% 45% 39% -10.5%
≤90d 292 -10.0% -18.6% 44% 38% -10.9%
all 292 -10.0% -18.6% 44% 38% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 38% -10.9%
10% -26.4% 32% -19.4%
15% -33.5% 24% -27.2%
20% -40.0% 17% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses128 / 164
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)292 / 292
History coverage41d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 292 Trades
no open positions (87 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $2 −$1 -79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $14 +$11 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $27 +$28 +103%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 17 $4 $0 -3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $14 +$4 +28%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $14 +$4 +27%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $14 −$5 -37%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $8 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $11 −$1 -7%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $17 +$1 +8%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $9 +$3 +32%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $6 +$3 +57%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $21 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Rafael Jodar Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $16 −$2 -12%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $11 +$8 +75%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $6 +$2 +29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $14 −$4 -28%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $9 −$2 -24%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $3 +$6 +197%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $16 −$4 -25%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $21 −$4 -21%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $21 +$4 +21%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $6 +$3 +45%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $13 −$7 -55%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $13 −$4 -32%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $9 $0 -4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $33 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under $0 1h
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 18¢ $2 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 41¢ $4 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 14¢ $3 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $4 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $11 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $11 19h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $11 21h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 55¢ $5 25h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 55¢ $5 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 78¢ $6 36h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 25¢ $5 38h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $6 38h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $5 39h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $4 39h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $4 39h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 33¢ $3 40h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 66¢ $6 40h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $4 46h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 46¢ $4 46h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic $2 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 28¢ $3 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 71¢ $6 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 40¢ $3 2d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 70¢ $6 2d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 72¢ $6 2d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 65¢ $7 2d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 26¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 35¢ $3 2d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 66¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 861 history records