Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
83 0x830f…f035 crypto 582 markets active 2h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$185 (+1%) realized +$185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%316W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$29
14 days−$535
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$208
world 6% −$508
other 2% −$47
politics 1% $0
tech 0% −$9
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +2.3% -7.4% 50% 43% -5.5%
≤30d 80 -9.0% -17.7% 39% 36% -11.0%
≤90d 286 -1.4% -10.8% 49% 47% -7.7%
all 582 +2.6% -7.1% 54% 51% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 51% -11.5%
10% -16.0% 48% -20.0%
15% -24.1% 43% -27.7%
20% -31.6% 37% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses316 / 266
Open positions0
Markets (closed)582 / 582
History coverage374d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 582 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $66 −$13 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $66 −$23 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $66 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $66 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$26 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$19 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $66 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $33 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $66 +$59 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $66 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $66 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $38 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $296 +$115 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $132 −$128 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $132 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $132 +$44 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $66 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $132 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $66 +$45 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $45 −$25 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $62 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $288 +$140 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $43 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $66 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $33 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $49 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $66 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $33 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $33 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $69 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1574 history records