Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8310…ac48 crypto 1176 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$178 (-4%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%468W / 706L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days−$6
14 days+$24
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$235
other 29% −$333
crypto 17% −$156
world 0% −$16
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -11.1% -19.6% 41% 37% -9.9%
≤30d 331 -15.2% -23.3% 41% 36% -10.0%
≤90d 969 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 35% -14.1%
all 1174 -17.7% -25.6% 40% 36% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 36% -14.8%
10% -32.7% 32% -23.0%
15% -39.2% 28% -30.4%
20% -45.2% 24% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses468 / 706
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1174 / 1176
History coverage155d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1174 Trades
no open positions (151 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $30 +$5 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -67%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$9 -90%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $119 +$130 +109%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $63 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $98 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $132 −$132 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $109 +$129 +119%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 $0 -6%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $59 −$50 -83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $94 −$85 -90%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$2 -38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +42%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $16 −$1 -5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$4 +188%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$19 +127%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$6 +28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $165 +$73 +45%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $1 +$8 +786%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +22%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $155 +$31 +20%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 +$3 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 +$1 +8%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $7 −$6 -83%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $75 −$74 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 26m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $2 33m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 87¢ $36 51m
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes $1 3h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 3h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $68 22h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $63 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $98 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 45h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $109 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $113 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No 13¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3210 history records