Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

83 0x8311…34bc crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$90 (+43%) realized +$90 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$51

7 days+$51

14 days+$51

30 days+$81

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+36.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+65.5%	+49.7%	50%	50%	+48.0%
≤30d	3	+229.7%	+198.3%	67%	67%	+75.9%
≤90d	5	+97.8%	+79.0%	40%	40%	+61.7%
all	21	+51.2%	+36.8%	43%	43%	+40.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+36.8%	43%	+40.9%
10%	+23.7%	43%	+27.4%
15%	+11.8%	43%	+15.1%
20%	+0.8%	38%	+3.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +79% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +51% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +69% → late +35% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$6 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$90

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage164d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	Jun 26	$41	−$17	-42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	Jun 26	$39	+$68	+172%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	Jun 06	$5	+$30	+558%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	Apr 20	$3	−$3	-93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	Apr 20	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	Feb 08	$17	+$12	+67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	Jan 26	$15	+$10	+68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?	Jan 26	$14	+$6	+40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25?	Jan 25	$9	−$8	-92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	Jan 25	$1	−$1	-93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?	Jan 25	$9	−$8	-91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?	Jan 25	$8	−$7	-92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 22?	Jan 20	$7	−$7	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20?	Jan 20	$2	$0	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20?	Jan 20	$1	+$4	+400%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 23?	Jan 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 20?	Jan 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15?	Jan 15	$10	+$8	+79%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 12-18?	Jan 14	$4	+$6	+122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14?	Jan 14	$7	+$36	+512%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13?	Jan 13	$10	−$3	-33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	SELL Yes	10¢	$22	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	SELL Yes	10¢	$2	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	SELL Yes	27¢	$107	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	BUY Yes	27¢	$18	19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL Yes	67¢	$18	19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	BUY Yes	25¢	$17	20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	SELL Yes	63¢	$17	20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	BUY Yes	10¢	$34	23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	BUY Yes	3¢	$3	66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	66d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	SELL No	76¢	$29	138d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	BUY No	46¢	$10	140d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	BUY No	46¢	$5	140d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	BUY No	44¢	$2	140d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	SELL Yes	10¢	$1	150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	SELL Yes	10¢	$7	150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	SELL Yes	10¢	$9	150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	SELL Yes	11¢	$2	150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	SELL Yes	10¢	$5	150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	SELL Yes	10¢	$1	150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?	SELL Yes	4¢	$19	150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25?	SELL No	0¢	$1	151d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 19-25?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	151d
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	151d
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 January 19-25?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 22?	BUY No	8¢	$7	156d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20?	SELL No	0¢	$2	156d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records