Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x8318…945d other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+12%) realized +$57 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$75
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$23
sports 11% +$38
politics 8% +$2
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +183.8% +156.8% 50% 42% +54.0%
≤30d 12 +183.8% +156.8% 50% 42% +54.0%
≤90d 14 +143.3% +120.1% 43% 36% +42.1%
all 32 +50.1% +35.8% 50% 38% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.8% 38% +15.5%
10% +22.8% 31% +4.4%
15% +10.9% 28% -5.7%
20% +0.0% 28% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +113% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage177d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 57¢ 83¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +244%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$22 +436%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 +$2 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$10 +238%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1824%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? May 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? Mar 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 04 $5 +$1 +30%
Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? Feb 23 $18 +$2 +8%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Feb 01 $9 −$5 -59%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4? Jan 06 $10 $0 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $3 $0 +14%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 03 $1 +$1 +75%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jan 03 $3 +$2 +64%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $5 +$3 +54%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $1 +$1 +92%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $41 15h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 28h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 29h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 30h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? BUY No 29¢ $1 98d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 2-8? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 102d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 102d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? BUY No 88¢ $20 102d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY No 77¢ $5 110d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 133d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 156d
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.11 · official $13.11 (match) · 79 history records