Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8319…fea0 other 13 markets active 17h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-18%) realized −$20 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$68
sports 22% +$42
tech 9% +$3
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -37.5% -43.5% 25% 25% -29.9%
≤30d 12 -37.5% -43.5% 25% 25% -29.9%
≤90d 12 -37.5% -43.5% 25% 25% -29.9%
all 12 -37.5% -43.5% 25% 25% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 25% -29.9%
10% -48.9% 17% -36.6%
15% -53.8% 17% -42.8%
20% -58.4% 17% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$31 +144%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 16h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $12 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.15 · official $16.15 (match) · 32 history records