Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
83 0x831a…0765 other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-2%) realized −$87 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$155
7 days−$51
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$87
sports 38% +$52
politics 3% +$22
crypto 2% +$44
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -16.3% -24.3% 36% 36% -12.0%
≤30d 58 -12.3% -20.7% 38% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 58 -12.3% -20.7% 38% 38% -9.5%
all 59 -13.8% -22.0% 37% 37% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 37% -10.3%
10% -29.5% 37% -18.9%
15% -36.3% 37% -26.7%
20% -42.5% 36% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$29 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 37
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions12
Markets (closed)59 / 71
History coverage138d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $48 $38 −$10 (-21%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+65%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 29¢ 30¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 52¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $25 +$30 +119%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$48 +188%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 +$44 +172%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$55 +72%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 +$53 +206%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$65 +129%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$88 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$67 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$41 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$36 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$50 +65%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $25 +$31 +124%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $13 −$12 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 8h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $25 22h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 22h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $26 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 34¢ $25 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 22h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 29h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 30h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 30h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 31h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 46¢ $47 31h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $25 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 42h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $26 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.55 · official $432.55 (match) · 236 history records