Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x831b…8744 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$138 (-50%) realized −$156 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$36
sports 20% −$55
world 11% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-72.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -69.0% -72.0% 20% 20% -68.7%
≤30d 15 -69.0% -72.0% 20% 20% -68.7%
≤90d 15 -69.0% -72.0% 20% 20% -68.7%
all 15 -69.0% -72.0% 20% 20% -68.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.0% 20% -68.7%
10% -74.6% 20% -71.7%
15% -77.1% 20% -74.5%
20% -79.3% 7% -77.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $60 $78 +$18 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$7 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $60 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 10h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 24h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 46h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 47h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.81 · official $77.81 (match) · 19 history records