Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x831c…ce7d sports 329 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$469 (+2%) realized +$469 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate71%232W / 97L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$379est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$289
7 days+$385
14 days+$505
30 days+$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$402
other 4% −$33
crypto 1% −$16
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +4.8% -5.2% 65% 22% -6.5%
≤30d 236 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 18% -8.2%
≤90d 329 -1.8% -11.1% 71% 27% -8.3%
all 329 -1.8% -11.1% 71% 27% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 27% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 10% -17.0%
15% -27.4% 5% -25.1%
20% -34.5% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$469
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses232 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$379
Open positions0
Markets (closed)329 / 329
History coverage77d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 329 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $53 −$4 -8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $61 +$4 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $54 +$29 +54%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $262 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $902 −$64 -7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $120 +$85 +70%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $109 +$124 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 −$1 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$100 +198%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $612 +$80 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $151 +$27 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $142 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $221 −$9 -4%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $442 −$20 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $134 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $627 +$14 +2%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $123 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $368 −$31 -8%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $221 −$2 -1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $207 −$56 -27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $118 +$3 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $49 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $137 +$16 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $255 +$3 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $17 −$3 -21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $250 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $183 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $195 +$4 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $216 +$28 +13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $271 +$3 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $200 +$12 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $150 +$1 +0%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +21%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$12 +242%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $49 +$1 +3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $300 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $24 21m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 82¢ $26 21m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $24 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 87¢ $28 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 5¢ $66 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $8 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $31 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $20 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 4¢ $2 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 55m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $30 55m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 96¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 96¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 7¢ $34 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 42¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 41¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 43¢ $151 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 43¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 43¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $79 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $115 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 44¢ $61 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $59 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 74¢ $28 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $29 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 79¢ $71 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3260 history records